Trump Delays Iran Strikes Five Days as Oil Whipsaws and Saxo Maps Three Investor Scenarios

President Donald Trump announced on March 23, 2026 that he was postponing planned military strikes on Iran's power plants and energy infrastructure by five days, citing what he described as productive backchannel contacts and lifting a prior 48-hour ultimatum. The decision immediately sent oil prices lower on diplomacy hopes, only for Brent crude to rebound sharply above $102 per barrel on March 24 as Tehran denied any negotiations had taken place and Iran launched fresh missile attacks on Israel. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which had been pushing fresh 2026 highs on the back of Iran-driven safe-haven demand, softened on the delay announcement before reasserting itself as military uncertainty persisted.

Trump's Postponement and Tehran's Denial

The White House framed the five-day pause as an opening for diplomacy, with Trump declaring "constructive negotiations" were underway. Iran's government rejected that characterisation entirely. The divergence between Washington's stated rationale and Tehran's public denial left markets without a clear resolution signal, producing the violent intraday reversals in crude and currency markets that defined trading on March 24 [1][2]. USD/JPY was approaching 160 during the period of peak tension as the yen remained under pressure from rising risk premiums in energy markets.

Complicating the picture further, Israel had already carried out strikes on Iran's South Pars gas field and the Asaluyeh oil facility on Iran's southern coast before Trump's postponement announcement. Those strikes represent a direct hit to Iran's core hydrocarbon export infrastructure, adding a physical supply dimension to the geopolitical uncertainty regardless of diplomatic outcomes [1].

Airline route cancellations around the Gulf were generating secondary market disruptions, with reports of Dubai-routed bullion shipments being affected. Individual cargo flights carrying up to five tonnes of gold - representing cargoes worth as much as $830 million per flight - were being rerouted or grounded as carriers suspended Gulf operations [2].

Saxo Bank's Three-Scenario Framework

Ruben Dalfovo, Investment Strategist at Saxo Bank, published a scenario analysis on March 24 that has attracted wide attention for framing the market problem as a branching probability tree rather than a single directional call.

"When geopolitics gets loud, the right question is not 'what is the one trade?' but 'what happens if the next headline points in three different directions?'" - Ruben Dalfovo, Saxo Bank [1]

The three scenarios cover a ceasefire and relief rally, a protracted soft war, and a sharp escalation. Each carries distinct implications for oil, equities, and foreign exchange markets.

In the ceasefire scenario, Dalfovo notes that equity leadership would rotate back toward growth, technology, travel and consumer discretionary as oil pressure eases and inflation fears recede. Defence stocks may surrender some urgency premium, though Saxo argues their structural case remains intact given the policy-driven nature of European procurement budgets [1].

The soft war scenario - which Dalfovo describes as "the most useful scenario for portfolio thinking because it is messy, realistic and not especially cinematic" - favours integrated energy producers, regulated utilities, infrastructure operators and contracted cash-flow businesses. This is the environment where the bank's HALO strategy (Heavy Asset, Low Obsolescence) earns its keep: owning business models built around hard assets, replacement demand, pricing power and long-lived usefulness [1].

"HALO, short for Heavy Asset, Low Obsolescence, is not about predicting war. It is about owning business models built around hard assets, replacement demand, pricing power and long-lived usefulness." - Ruben Dalfovo, Saxo Bank [1]

Escalation Risk and the $150 Brent Scenario

The third scenario involves a deeper attack on Iran's southern coast or islands, a broader regional response, or a formal effort to force maritime passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Some analysts cited by Reuters see Brent reaching $150 if the strait remains effectively shut through April [1]. That outcome would constitute a broad market stress event in which few equity sectors would show absolute gains, though integrated energy producers, midstream infrastructure, defence primes, and security and aerospace suppliers would likely outperform on a relative basis.

Bahrain has proposed a United Nations resolution authorising force to protect shipping in the region, while France has pushed a competing, more conciliatory draft focused on de-escalation [1]. The competing diplomatic tracks mirror the competing market signals and leave investors without a clean positioning framework.

Defence Budgets and the Structural Backdrop

Regardless of near-term scenario outcomes, the structural backdrop for European defence spending has already shifted materially. According to Reuters, European Union member states' defence spending reached EUR 343 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach EUR 381 billion in 2025 [1]. Germany is separately considering a dedicated EUR 10 billion military satellite network in partnership with Rheinmetall, OHB and Airbus [1]. These procurement pipelines are increasingly driven by policy commitments rather than headline risk, meaning a ceasefire would soften the urgency premium on defence equities without eliminating the structural demand case.

USD Dynamics and Oil's Role

The DXY's move to fresh 2026 highs reflected the dual safe-haven and petrodollar dynamics at play: higher oil prices raise inflation expectations, compress real rate differentials for non-commodity currencies, and simultaneously push capital toward the dollar as a risk-off instrument [2][4]. The softening on Trump's postponement announcement reversed a portion of those gains, but analysts noted that the reversal would remain fragile as long as Tehran's denial held and Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities continued.

Capital Street FX and LMAX Group both flagged USD/JPY approaching 160 as a key watch level during the period of peak tension, with Japanese authorities historically intervening when the pair approaches psychologically significant levels [2][4].

"The market now needs a scenario map, not a single heroic prediction." - Ruben Dalforo, Saxo Bank [1]

Oil's sharp intraday volatility on March 24 - falling on the delay announcement, then rebounding as diplomatic hopes frayed - encapsulates the binary nature of the situation. The physical supply impact of Israeli strikes on South Pars and Asaluyeh provides a floor that purely diplomatic headlines cannot easily dislodge.

References

[1] Saxo Bank, "What Iran means for markets now: three scenarios for investors" (March 24, 2026): https://www.home.saxo/en-mena/content/articles/equities/three-scenarios-iran-24032026 [2] Capital Street FX, "Global Index Market Analysis March 24, 2026" (March 24, 2026): https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/global-index-market-analysis-march-24-2026/ [3] InstaForex, "The Dollar Was Stabbed in the Back" (March 24, 2026): https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/441346 [4] LMAX Group, "Global FX Insights" (March 24, 2026): https://www.lmax.com/blog/global-fx-insights/