Oil Crashes $31 After Trump Calls Iran Conflict a 'Short-Term Excursion'
Brent crude oil suffered a violent $31 reversal on March 10, 2026, plunging from an intraday high of $119.50 per barrel to an overnight low of $88.05 after President Donald Trump described the ongoing US Iran military campaign as a "short term excursion" and signaled an imminent end to hostilities. The crash wiped out nearly two thirds of the conflict premium that had built up since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, leaving Brent to settle near $91.72 by midday London time [1]. The selloff accelerated through Asian and European trading sessions on Tuesday as traders unwound long positions that had driven crude to its highest level since mid 2022 just 24 hours earlier. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell in tandem to $88.51 , down 6% by 1307 GMT, while Brent traded at $91.81, off 7.43% on the session [2]. Trump's De Escalation Gambit The pivot came Monday evening at Mar a Lago, where Trump told CBS News that the conflict was "very complete, pretty much" and running "very far" ahead of its initial four to five week timeframe. Speaking to Republican lawmakers at his Florida estate, the president framed the military action in strikingly casual terms. "We took a little excursion we felt we needed to do to get rid of some evil. I think you'll see it going to be a short term excursion." [3] Trump followed those remarks with a Truth Social post warning Tehran directly that any further interference with the Strait of Hormuz would provoke retaliation "twenty times harder" than strikes delivered so far. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt reinforced the message on Tuesday morning, telling reporters that "Americans will see oil and gas prices drop rapidly" and that the war ends when Iran reaches "complete and unconditional surrender whether they say it or not" [1]. Iran Fires Back Tehran offered no sign of capitulation. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesperson Ali Mohammad Naini declared that "Iran will determine when the war ends" and warned that the IRGC would "not allow one litre of oil to be exported from the region if US Israeli attacks continue" [2]. The defiant posture kept a floor under prices even as Trump's comments drove the headline collapse, with Brent holding above $88 through Tuesday's session. Day by Day Oil Price Timeline | Date | Brent Open | Brent High | Brent Low | Brent Close | Key Event | | | | | | | | | Sun Mar 8 | ~$77.00 | n/a | n/a | ~$77.24 | Pre spike baseline (EIA spot) | | Mon Mar 9 | ~$100.00 | $119.50 | ~$100.00 | ~$99 105 | Strait of Hormuz panic; 3 year high | | Tue Mar 10 | ~$99.00 | ~$99.00 | $88.05 | $91.72 | Trump "excursion" remarks crash market | The table illustrates the extraordinary speed of the reversal: Brent gained more than $42 per barrel between Sunday's close and Monday's high, then shed $31 of that gain in under 24 hours. Pre conflict Brent had been trading near $71.32 on February 27, meaning crude remained roughly $20 per barrel above pre war levels even after the crash [4]. Strait of Hormuz: Still Effectively Closed The fundamental supply picture remained dire despite Trump's optimism. Maritime tracking data showed only two non Iran and non Russia linked vessels had transited the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began, compared with normal traffic of approximately 100 vessels per day. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq all began cutting crude output as onshore storage filled with tankers unable to exit the Persian Gulf [1]. Nearly 1.9 million barrels per day of Gulf refining capacity was shut in due to the conflict, according to IIR Consulting, while Abu Dhabi's ADNOC closed its Ruwais refinery after a drone strike ignited a fire at the facility [2]. US gasoline prices had already risen 47 cents in a single week to a national average of $3.48 per gallon , per AAA data, and jet fuel spiked from roughly $85 90 per barrel to $150 200 per barrel, prompting fare increases from carriers including Qantas and Air New Zealand [3]. Analysts Warn of "Total Tug of War" Market strategists cautioned that the reprieve could prove fleeting. Alberto Bellorin of InterCapital Energy told the BBC that trading would "remain incredibly twitchy," with prices surging if the conflict intensifies and falling if it shows signs of abating, calling the market a "total tug of war" [2]. "Trump's remarks regarding a brief conflict have calmed market sentiments. While there was an excessive reaction on the upside yesterday, we believe there is a similar overreaction on the downside today. Murban and Dubai grades remain well above $100 per barrel, indicating that significant changes in ground realities have not occurred," said Suvro Sarkar , Energy Team Lead at DBS Bank [5]. JP Morgan warned in a research note that policy actions may have limited effectiveness on oil prices unless safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz is guaranteed, given the possible loss of up to 12 million barrels per day over the coming fortnight [1]. Macquarie Research projected that if the strait remains closed for even a few weeks, prices could escalate to $150 per barrel or more [5]. Goldman Sachs, by contrast, maintained its Brent forecast at $66 per barrel for Q4 2026 and $62 for WTI , citing the "ongoing fluidity of the situation" [1]. Sanctions Relief and Strategic Reserves Trump also moved to ease supply constraints through diplomacy. He announced plans to lift unspecified sanctions on oil producing countries, telling reporters: "We have sanctions on some countries. We're going to take those sanctions off until the Strait is up." The US Treasury had already issued a 30 day waiver for Indian refiners to purchase Russian crude, and Trump confirmed he had discussed easing Russian oil sanctions with President Vladimir Putin in a Monday phone call [6]. The International Energy Agency convened an extraordinary meeting of all 32 member governments on Tuesday to discuss a coordinated strategic petroleum reserve release. IEA Director Fatih Birol framed the situation in urgent t…