Gold Retreats to $5,022 and Silver Drops to $80.54 as Dollar Index Hits 9.5-Month High

Gold fell to $5,022.11 per troy ounce on Friday, March 13, shedding $57.08 or 1.12% on the day, while silver dropped 3.92% to $80.54 per ounce as a surging US dollar and collapsing rate-cut expectations overpowered the safe-haven bid that had driven precious metals higher through much of the Iran conflict [1]. The dollar index (DXY) rallied to a 9.5-month high of 100.362, finishing up 0.65% on the session [4].

Dollar Strength Triggers Gold Liquidation

The pullback marked gold's second consecutive weekly decline despite the ongoing war, a counterintuitive move that analysts attribute to the mechanics of a strengthening greenback and rising Treasury yields. With Brent crude trading above $103 and WTI near $99, market participants have largely discarded the possibility of Fed rate cuts in 2026, as rising energy costs complicate the path toward price stability [1]. The shift toward yield-bearing assets has triggered liquidations across precious metals, with traders selling gold to cover margin calls and raise cash [1].

"The threat of persistent inflation from crude oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel has shifted the focus toward yield-bearing assets," noted Trading Economics in its March 13 gold market commentary [1].

The dollar's advance reflected a convergence of factors: the Iran war shows no signs of easing, keeping crude prices elevated and prompting the Fed to hold off on rate reductions; higher crude also threatens the European and Japanese economies, which depend heavily on energy imports, weakening the euro, pound, and yen against the dollar [4]. The EUR/USD pair fell 0.83% to 1.14167, the GBP/USD slipped 0.92%, and the Japanese yen hit a 20-month low against the greenback at 159.73 [1].

Gold's Volatile March Trajectory

Gold's retreat from its January 2026 all-time high of $5,608.35 has accelerated over the past week. The metal hit an intraday high of $5,228.82 on March 10, buoyed by safe-haven flows after a weekend of intensified strikes on Iran [7]. But it has since shed more than $200 per ounce in just three sessions as the dollar rally gained momentum.

The broader precious metals complex has fared even worse. Platinum tumbled 5.70% to $2,042.10, while copper fell 1.89% to $5.71 per pound [1]. Silver's steeper decline of 3.92%, nearly four times gold's percentage loss, reflects its dual identity as both a precious and industrial metal, making it more vulnerable to the economic slowdown that elevated oil prices threaten to unleash.

Silver Under Pressure

Silver's decline has been particularly sharp since its January 29 futures high of $121.785 per ounce on COMEX, representing a drop of roughly 34% from that peak to Friday's close [4]. The metal hit a one-month low of $71.82 on February 17 before rebounding to a one-month high of $95.86 on March 2 as conflict-driven demand surged, only to retreat again as dollar dynamics reasserted themselves [4].

In Malaysian ringgit terms, Public Gold Malaysia quoted gold at RM700 per gram on March 13, down RM4 from the prior session's RM709, while silver stood at RM1,295 per 100 grams [2]. The spot conversion rate from Bullion Rates placed gold at RM19,770 per troy ounce, or RM635.61 per gram, with the difference reflecting Public Gold's dealer markup [5].

"The dollar has seen a pullback, which is providing some support. Overall, the macro-fundamental factors remain broadly supportive of gold. Certainly, as long as the war with Iran is ongoing, that's going to remain supportive as well," said Peter Grant, Vice President and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals, earlier in the week. "There is a risk that volatility continues. But I remain bullish and think we will see new all-time highs" [10].

Rate Expectations and the Path Forward

The fundamental backdrop for gold remains deeply conflicted. On one hand, the Iran war, geopolitical uncertainty, and central bank purchasing continue to provide structural support; China extended its gold buying streak to 16 consecutive months as of March [1]. On the other, the inflation impulse from $100-plus crude is forcing markets to price out rate cuts entirely, with traders seeing no chance of a Fed reduction at next week's meeting and only about a 70% probability of any easing later in 2026 [1].

ING Think projects gold averaging approximately $5,190 for full-year 2026, rising from roughly $4,900 in Q1 to $5,450 by Q4 [1]. J.P. Morgan maintains a more bullish target of $6,300 per ounce by year-end [10]. Trading Economics' model forecasts gold at $5,142 by the end of Q1 and $5,558 within 12 months [1].

The January PCE price index reading of +3.1% year-over-year, combined with Q4 2025 GDP revised down to 0.7% annualized, has revived stagflation concerns that could ultimately prove supportive for gold even as the dollar remains strong in the near term [4]. For now, however, the greenback's gravitational pull has proven the dominant force, and gold faces a critical test of the $5,000 psychological level heading into the new trading week.

References

[1] https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold [2] https://publicgold.me/yes/gold-price-today [3] https://www.goldavenue.com/en/silver-price/usd [4] https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/SIH26 [5] https://www.bullion-rates.com/gold/MYR/2026-3-history.htm [6] https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-prices [7] https://pricegold.net/2026/march/10/ [8] https://goldprice.org/gold-price-today/2026-03-10 [9] https://fortune.com/article/current-price-of-gold-03-10-2026/ [10] https://naturalresourcestocks.net/gold-price-today-march-10-2026/