Gold and Silver Prices Have Further to Fall Before Reaching Floor, Says Heraeus

The precious metals market entered March 2026 in a state of cautious reassessment after a historic run that carried gold past $5,000 per ounce for the first time in January before setting an all-time high of $5,589.38 per ounce. As of early March, gold was trading just above $5,400, representing a gain of more than 100% over twelve months. Silver, which surged as high as $120 per ounce, had retreated to approximately $94, and analysts at Heraeus Precious Metals and several independent forecasters argued that the corrective process for both metals was not yet complete [1][2].

Heraeus Assessment: Floor Not Yet Reached

Heraeus, the German precious metals refiner whose weekly market commentary is closely followed by institutional traders, assessed in its March 2 report that both gold and silver retained further downside before establishing durable support levels. The firm's view was that positioning data and the strength of recent rallies had created vulnerability to sharper corrections, even if the long-term structural case for hard assets remained intact. The Iran conflict and its inflationary implications for energy markets provided some offset to selling pressure, but Heraeus cautioned that conflict-driven safe-haven premiums historically prove temporary unless sustained military escalation follows [1].

The precious metals complex had spent the prior several weeks digesting a confluence of conflicting signals: central bank buying continued at pace, but the Federal Reserve's rate-cut timeline had been pushed back to September following the Iran strikes, reducing the immediate appeal of non-yielding assets. The nomination of Kevin Warsh, a relatively hawkish figure, as the incoming Fed chair added additional uncertainty about the duration and depth of any forthcoming easing cycle.

Gold Outlook: Steep Pullback Possible, Dips Attract Buyers

Hiren Chandaria, managing director at Monetary Metals, offered the most explicit near-term caution.

"Given the strength of the recent rally and positioning in the market, I would not be surprised to see a steep pullback in the near term. That said, I would expect any correction to be relatively short-lived. When macro and structural drivers are this powerful, dips tend to attract fresh buying and the broader upward trend resumes," Chandaria said [2].

The macro backdrop that Chandaria referenced includes a softening US dollar outlook, rising global liquidity, and what Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, described as a geopolitically driven supply-demand imbalance in the Treasury market.

"This imbalance continues to reinforce the long-term case for hard assets amid financial repression risk. Bottom line: Expect gold to grind higher," Dale said [2].

Thomas Winmill, portfolio manager at Midas Funds, projected gold would reach prices above $5,500 per ounce within the next month or two, driven by central bank diversification away from US securities. Winmill attributed the sustained institutional demand to a broad reassessment of dollar-denominated assets as geopolitical risk instruments.

"Dollar-denominated assets are seen as increasingly risky in view of US sanctions, denial of SWIFT privileges, asset seizures, military interventions and similar actions," Winmill said [2].

Silver Below $100: Consolidation Phase

Silver presented a more complex picture. After its historic surge to $120, the metal had corrected sharply to around $94, losing more than 20% from its peak in a matter of weeks. James Cordier, CEO and head trader at OptionSpreaders.com, described the earlier high as a "perfect-storm scenario" that had run its course.

"Silver has certainly come off somewhat, from what is thought to be a perfect-storm scenario that propelled prices to $120 an ounce. Prices should consolidate below $100 until new fundamentals present themselves," Cordier said [2].

Chandaria at Monetary Metals noted that silver's historically higher beta to gold meant the metal would likely amplify whichever direction gold moved next, presenting both greater risk to the downside in the near term and greater potential reward on any resumption of the bull trend.

"Silver tends to amplify gold's direction. Silver is likely to outperform gold on both sides of the move," Chandaria added [2].

Winmill at Midas Funds forecast "extreme" volatility in silver throughout 2026, pointing to the combination of margin liquidation, producer forward selling, institutional short selling, and private hoard selling as recurring sources of sharp price dislocations.

Structural Drivers Remain Intact

Despite the near-term caution, no analyst surveyed anticipated a reversal of the structural bull market. Central bank gold accumulation continued at the pace that had characterized all of 2025. The retreat from dollar-denominated sovereign bonds that Winmill described was ongoing, with foreign central banks increasingly directing reserves toward gold as a sanction-proof, counterparty-free store of value. Dale's financial repression thesis, which holds that governments facing high debt loads will eventually allow real interest rates to stay negative, provided a fundamental anchor for hard asset demand that did not depend on day-to-day geopolitical developments.

For retail investors weighing entry points, experts broadly recommended disciplined systematic allocation over attempts to time the precise bottom of any correction. Chandaria's view was direct: the greater risk for long-term investors was waiting for a perfect entry point and missing structural upside rather than absorbing short-term volatility by entering during a consolidation phase [2].

References

[1] Kitco News, "Gold and silver prices have further to fall before reaching the floor" (March 2, 2026): https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-03-02/gold-and-silver-prices-have-further-fall-reaching-floor-iran-conflict-and

[2] CBS News, "What will happen to gold and silver prices this March? Here's what experts expect" (March 2, 2026): https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-will-happen-to-gold-and-silver-prices-march-2026-what-experts-expect